Times Union Wednesday, August 18, 2010 7:42
Down fears fund managers about the prospects for global economic recovery and corporate profits during the month of August, according to the questionnaire monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch to the views of fund managers.
The questionnaire that 5 per cent of respondents expected improvement in the global economy next year, with a shift from modest expectations last July, when the expected 12 per cent of whom deterioration of the global economy.
While the proportion of participants who expect growth rates and inflation of less than the usual fixed at 73 per cent in August, showed the questionnaire down fears of a recession again.
Ruled out the 78 per cent of the participants of a recession double. Having suffered from the shock of deflation last month, investors are again focusing on inflation.
The survey demonstrated the existence of semi-neutral view on the prospect of higher global inflation rate next year, but he did not expect only one per cent of the participants reduced the average during the next twelve months, compared with 12 per cent in the month of July.
The 14 per cent of the officials of the distribution of assets for their belief that global monetary policy in the excessive stimulation, compared with only 5 per cent in July. However, 55 per cent of the participants in this global survey, ruled out the occurrence of any increase in U.S. interest rates by the third quarter of 2011 the next.
On the other hand, he returned a key indicator monitors the risk borne by investors over their liquidity and cash, to the level of quasi-neutral, indicating a positive shift in investors' perceptions.
Said Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research: "turning pessimistic investors from China and Europe to Japan and the United States of America. Investors remained cautious and clear, so it will constitute any positive news about growth rates and U.S. monetary policy, a pleasant surprise. "
For his part, said Gary Baker, head of European equity strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research: "improved investor sentiment towards investment in Europe significantly during the past few months, optimism, reinforced by the performance of the largest European banks. It remains to be economic data continues to support this shift in sentiment. "
European equities
Reducing the officials asset allocation of the volume of their holdings of cash, and was 7 per cent of them excessive in the possession of monetary assets in August, compared with 13 per cent in July and 19 per cent in June, but that higher allocations to invest in stocks, coincided with a reduction in provisions for investment in bonds.
The 23 per cent of investors preferred to invest less in bonds in August, compared with 15 per cent in July.
The questionnaire showed a sharp decline in investor appetite for U.S. stocks and Japanese and the recovery of demand for European equities.
He explained that 14 per cent of the officials were Mkulain the distribution of assets to invest in U.S. stocks in August, while 7 per cent of them in excessive investment in July. Officials also reduced the distribution of assets of Global exposure to Japanese equities, where the questionnaire revealed that 27 per cent of them were Mkulain to invest in Japanese stocks in August, compared with 7 per cent in June.
In contrast, 11 per cent of those officials prefer to invest in European stocks in August, expressing the most positive attitude towards it since October 2009, compared with 10 per cent of them were cutting back on investment last July. He revealed the questionnaire revealed positive developments in investor sentiment towards the stock is also British, expressing the most positive attitude towards it since May 2007.
Investment in China
Increased popularity of the emerging global market in conjunction with the decline in fears of weakness in the Chinese economy. The questionnaire indicated that 38 per cent of global asset allocation officials preferred to invest in those markets, compared with 34 per cent in July and 31 per cent in June.
Fears of a weakness in the Chinese economy significantly, as predicted only 19 per cent of the participants in the questionnaire for the month of August down the Chinese economy next year, compared with 39 per cent expected in a survey last July. Has reinforced the demand for commodities from these positive feelings. Preferably 9 per cent of participants investing in commodities in August, compared with only 1 per cent in the month of July.
For its part, saw the banks that are usually at least one of the most popular sectors of the investors, a sharp increase in investment in shares, which reduced the proportion of investors who do not prefer to invest in those most important from 28 percent in July to 19 per cent in August. This is a remarkable change in the investment in the banking sector as well as investment in the shares of the industrial sector become the second largest of its kind to investors. On the other hand, has seen shares of the sectors of public utilities and pharmaceuticals, a sharp decline in demand for them.
U.S. Dollar
He revealed the questionnaire revealed officials believe that the distribution of assets denominated in U.S. dollar exchange rate seems less than worth while the price is denominated in Japanese yen than it deserves.
In the opinion of 23 per cent of respondents in a survey in August that the U.S. dollar exchange rate seems to GDP is less than it's worth, compared with only 3 per cent believed it in July.
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